(Dan Tri) – ISW assesses that Russia will continue offensive actions to destabilize Ukraine’s defense lines, while preparing for a new attack in the summer of 2024.
In Avdiivka, high-rise buildings in the city are almost intact (Illustration: Getty).
Analysts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations to destabilize Ukraine’s defenses in the spring, and
According to ISW, the provision of Western security assistance will likely play an important role in helping Ukraine retain its current territory and fend off new Russian attack efforts in the coming months.
At the same time, Russian forces are trying to maintain the tempo of offensive operations in eastern Ukraine to prevent Kiev forces from stabilizing their defenses.
The Russian army especially concentrated its efforts on advancing as far as possible from Avdiivka westward, before the enemy could establish a line in the more difficult to penetrate area.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, said on March 15 that Russia has concentrated its efforts in the direction of Avdiivka and is conducting daily mechanized and infantry attacks to try to penetrate
Although Ukrainian forces were recently able to slow Russia’s advance west of Avdiivka, widespread logistical shortages due to delayed Western security assistance forced Kiev to devote limited resources.
ISW experts believe that Russia will continue to take advantage of its victory across the battlefield to automatically rebalance its offensive efforts this spring and summer, hoping to exploit possible weaknesses.
Kiev and Western officials increasingly warn of a significant shortage of Ukrainian equipment as well as a new large-scale Russian attack when the summer comes, and predict that aid to Kiev is coming.
However, if it receives Western support, Ukraine will be able to stabilize the front line better and prepare to repel Russia’s offensive actions.
In addition, the report notes, the severe shortage of air and missile defense systems is likely to significantly reduce Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russian attacks both in the rear and on the front lines in the future.
Meanwhile, Russia has recently attempted to destroy Ukraine’s air defense systems both in rear settlements and along the front lines.
The assessment states: `Ukraine’s 60% reduction in its ability to intercept Russian missiles will exacerbate the problems. ISW estimates that the US remains the only direct source of needed air defense systems such as the Patriot
Russia is said to have destroyed another US-made Patriot air defense missile complex in Ukraine (Photo: Telegram).
ISW’s notable comments for March 15:
First, Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations to destabilize Ukrainian defenses in the spring, while preparing for a new offensive campaign expected this summer.
Second, well-equipped Ukrainian forces have proven that they can prevent Russia from achieving even small successes in large-scale offensive operations, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine
Third, there is the threat of significant Russian gains in the coming months through offensive operations this spring.
Fourth, the severe shortage of air and missile defense systems will likely significantly reduce Ukraine’s defenses against Russian attacks at both the rear and front in the coming weeks if problems arise.
Fifth, Russian forces have demonstrated their ability to adapt to the war in Ukraine and will likely try to apply lessons learned in combat in an effort to prepare for a potential long-term confrontation with Russia.
Friday, senior European officials emphasized that Russia’s victory in Ukraine would make Russia a strategic threat to NATO security.
Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 15 that he does not rule out sending Western forces to fight in Ukraine, but the current situation does not require this.
Eighth, the Ukrainian army carried out a UAV attack on a Russian oil refinery in the Kaluga region.
Ninth, the Russian army has recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Avdiivka, as well as in the western Zaporizhia region.
